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基于PSO-灰色BPNN模型的路面使用性能预测研究
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作者单位:

长沙理工大学 交通学院,湖南 长沙 410114

作者简介:

李雪连,女,博士,教授. E-mail:lixuelian@csust.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

U416.217

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:52178412);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:2025JJ50298)


Pavement Performance Prediction Based on Integrated Particle Swarm Optimization-Gray Back Propagation Neural Network Model
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School of Transportation, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410114, China

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    摘要:

    为最大程度优化路面养护决策,解决现有沥青路面性能预测模型精度低和历史检测数据匮乏的问题,该文基于网级管理,提出一种结合粒子群优化算法(PSO)、灰色模型(GM)与反向传播神经网络(BPNN)的路面使用性能预测组合模型,并将该模型与传统常用的路面性能预测模型GM(1,1)模型、支持向量回归(SVR)模型、BPNN模型和PSO-BPNN模型进行对比,采用平均绝对值误差(EMAE)、均方根误差(ERMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(EMAPE)评价各模型的预测精度,以及采用决定系数(R2)评估PSO-灰色BPNN模型的拟合效果。结果表明:采用PSO算法优化BPNN模型参数,并结合GM模型的数据生成能力,PSO-灰色BPNN组合模型的精度得到了显著提高;基于14条高速公路路面性能数据,验证了模型预测值与现场实测值具有较高的吻合度,IPCI指标的EMAEERMSEEMAPE降至1.721 8、2.296 8和1.897 1,ISRI指标的R2最高可达0.919;与其他4个模型相比,组合模型对IPCIIRQIIRDIISRI的预测误差结果均最小,充分凸显了该模型的优越性。该文提出的PSO-灰色BPNN组合模型的预测准确性更高,预测结果更符合实际,可为网级路面性能预测提供精准可靠的技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    The existing performance prediction model of asphalt pavements is limited by low accuracy and a lack of historical measured data. To address this issue and maximally optimize the pavement maintenance decision, a pavement performance prediction model integrating particle swarm optimization (PSO), gray model (GM), and back propagation neural network (BPNN) was proposed based on network management. Meanwhile, the model was compared with the GM(1,1) model, support vector regression (SVR) model, BPNN model, and PSO-BPNN model. Then, the prediction accuracy of the models was evaluated by the mean absolute error (EMAE), the root mean square error (ERMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (EMAPE). The fitting results of the PSO-gray BPNN model were assessed by the R-squared (R2). The results indicate that by optimizing the BPNN model with the PSO algorithm and the GM model, the accuracy of the PSO-gray BPNN model is significantly improved. Based on the performance data of 14 expressways in Hubei Province, a high correlation between the predicted values of the model and the measured data is found. For the IPCI index, the value of EMAE, ERMSE, and EMAPE is reduced to 1.721 8, 2.296 8, and 1.897 1, respectively. The value of R2 could be up to 0.919. Compared to the other four models, the PSO-gray BPNN model has the smallest values of prediction error for IPCI, IRQI, IRDI, and ISRI, fully showing the superiority of the model. With higher prediction accuracy, the proposed PSO-gray BPNN model has prediction results more consistent with the actual situation, providing an accurate and reliable technical support for the prediction of pavement performance at the network level.

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引用本文

李雪连,黄妍,李雄.基于PSO-灰色BPNN模型的路面使用性能预测研究[J].中外公路,2025,45(5):46-52.
LI Xuelian, HUANG Yan, LI Xiong. Pavement Performance Prediction Based on Integrated Particle Swarm Optimization-Gray Back Propagation Neural Network Model[J]. Journal of China & Foreign Highway,2025,45(5):46-52.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-30
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-27
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